In NYC, primaries are the main course. Not the appetizer.

Don’t wait 'til November to tune in to state politics. You could miss the train completely.

In most of NYC, only Democrats matter. Republicans exist, but they’re outnumbered to the point of irrelevance.* 

Which means that the Democratic primary this June is the only election that matters for state races. Because in the November General Election, the Democrat will always beat the Republican. 

I was curious about how slim these margins are on average and how small they can get at their most extreme. For ease and simplicity, I only looked at Manhattan, but the same logic above applies to any district where there’s a clearly dominant party.

Why do we care about state legislators again? 

Here’s my full post on who these people are again, but as a quick refresher: there’s two houses in the State Legislature– the Assembly and the Senate. The 150 Assemblymembers and 63 State Senators work with the Governor to make laws and set the budget for the state. They have a huge impact on NYC residents’ day-to-day lives– from allocating a $229B state budget, levying taxes, and offering tax incentives, to passing policy on statewide stuff like minimum wage, and also things that just affect the City: from housing density to the number of charter schools. 

Don’t forget: we’re voting for State Senate and Assembly in 2024. This year!

Even though the primary is actually the deciding election, primary turnout is only about a third of the general election.

We all know fewer people vote in the primaries compared to the general election. But how drastic is it? To get a sense, I looked at all of Manhattan’s State Senate and Assembly races for 2014-2022. 

On average, primary turnout is 36% of the general for State Senate and 34% for the Assembly. So primaries get about a third of the number of voters that show up for the general election.

Which means not only does your voice matter more in the primary because the primary decides the general…. But also your voice matters more in the primary because there are fewer voters.

Some national studies have shown that primaries tend to draw more educated voters and fewer voters of color compared to the general election– it’d be interesting to see if that same trend applies to NYC.

The closest primary races have been decided by just a couple hundred votes…

What’s the vote difference between primary winners and the runners-up? There are definitely races that are decided by a difference of just a couple hundred voters. 

The closest state legislator race in the last 10 years was the Senate district 31 (Harlem and Washington Heights) race in 2016– Marisol Alcantara beat the next closest contender by just 294 votes in a four-way Democratic primary. She won the primary that September with only 33% of the vote. She was pretty much neck and neck with Robert Jackson, who now holds that Senate seat, and Micah Lasher, who is now running for Assembly on the Upper West Side. 

The crazy thing is that that primary was incredibly close, but the general election was a landslide. Alcantara won that November by 89,245 votes, with 85% of the vote overall. This is the power of the primary. All you need is a couple hundred more votes in the primary, because the general election is already decided.

Winning by a couple hundred votes in the primary guarantees thousands more votes in the general

…but not all primary races are close

I don’t want to make it seem like it’s always that close. More often than not, even in the primary, there’s one candidate that’s the favored winner from the beginning. Most primaries feature incumbents after all. The three primaries with the smallest margins (above) were all for open seats– there wasn’t an incumbent in the race. 

This chart below gives you an idea. These are all the Manhattan Assembly primaries for the last 10 years, ordered by the winner’s proportion of the vote. I figure it’s a close race if the winner has 60% or less of the vote. By that standard, only 40% are close. The most extreme not-close-at-all election was Linda Rosenthal’s Upper West Side race in 2016, where she got 96% of the primary votes (yes, she was the incumbent).

The same data, but another lens: here are the same races, but ordered by the margin of votes between the winner and runner-up. It’s just another way of seeing how close an election was, but by number of votes instead of percent of votes. Again, there’s a few really close races that are decided by just a couple hundred votes. But for more than half of races, the winner wins by 3000+ votes.

I’m not pretending that your individual vote will be the deciding vote in the primary, but the overall conversation does. Your dinner party conversation needs this right now. You have my permission to talk about state politics instead of talking about Trump. 

Your homework: If there’s a primary race that is interesting or impactful to you in 2024, start following it now. 

Step 1. Find the district where you live

(and the district where your best friend lives! And the district where you work! And the district that your kid’s school is in!) on this Assembly map and this State Senate map. The district may or may not have a primary in 2024, so you’ll have to just google it to find out. This is also a good article: NY State Legislature 2024 races to watch

Step 2. Follow the candidates.

They’ll be sharing their views and news via email, social media, campaign website, all the things. Subscribe to or follow two or three candidates. 

Step 3. Keep following, I know it’s a slog.

Candidate social media can be super annoying because it’s 50% “Look at me! I’m at a farmers market!” and 50% asking for money, but keep following. That way, you’ve got their names dialed in and a sense of what they stand for. Maybe they mention an endorsement that makes you think, “who’s that group endorsing them?” and you learn more that way. Or maybe they mention an upcoming debate that you can attend and bring a friend. 

Step 4. Share what you learn.

At your next dinner party, guaranteed the conversation will turn to Trump or to something boring like the weather, and then you can change the topic to state politics. You don’t have to be super knowledgeable. You can say “This candidate for Assembly keeps mentioning crime and policing in their newsletter. Curious how y’all feel about safety in the neighborhood.” or “It seems like these two candidates for State Senate have pretty similar views, except for their take on how to fix housing. Have y’all been following this at all?”

*There are some heavy Republican districts in Staten Island, parts of Brooklyn, and parts of Queens. Here’s just one map.